Interesting theory Sturminator. If this is the case it is a good example of management's remuneration package having unintended consequences - management being incentivised for the upside (for the benefit of the shareholders) but taking risks which end up having the opposite effect.
Regarding the apparent lack of hedging, this is reflective of industry sentiment at that time. I was at a conference in Nov when a smart a.. Irishman got up and suggested oil could see $50 in 2015 and was generally considered to be a have been controversial to be interesting and not taken seriously. The only companies that would have been hedging last year would have been those with a hedge policy as part of their company risk management, which is typically the larger type organisations.
Hindsight is a great thing.
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