STX (ASX) Ann: Strike October Update

Originally posted by Adaltiora ↑

Hi WangChung

It's probably all of the above. I was a little concerned when I saw the update come in post-close. Until I read it.

IMO this is a pre-emptive and targeted announcement, deliberately bringing attention the project. Some very bold, in fact nearly dramatic statements which for some weird reason reminded me of a band (think out of Melbourne) in the 80's called:

Not Drowning Waving...

The update caps off what has felt like a contrarian week with our chief satirist, mrdin, becoming positive (not quite effusive) and psi81 increasing his position (likely to prove to be great timing). And then the post market close Friday announcement.

They don't need cash at the moment as I recall the recent small raise pushed the runway out to end of the year. But of course they will need some again.

One of the biggest concerns I have had, extra over to the multitude of technical hurdles, is we finally get there and then a competitor picks up a chunk of shares cheaply and prevents full value being realised. I think Con80 nailed it - the weekend is like a trading halt in disguise to bring a lot of attention to the stock and potential events over coming weeks. I very much doubt that the Company would want the likes of Beach or Santos holding 10%-15% of the stock. For example, with the Lattice acquisition Beach has 50%(?) of Waitsia and of course they control PEL94/95 even though they have barely raised a finger in either area over the last 5years letting STX take all the risk in PEL96. They are opportunists. I'm hoping the Company will look ultimately to much bigger players for either straight capital or other innovative funding arrangements that have been previously alluded to. IMO the Board together with Stuart are all over this and the 'update' is all part of managing future value creation.

Looking in more detail through the presentation they use Mitsui acquisition of AWE as a proxy that points to +$500m of potential value if WE2 goes well. As to value in the Cooper, how long is a piece of string. The value arbitrage there is simple:

Huge multi-TCF resource (opportunity) meets domestice/export shortfall (massive demand).....

Too early with Jaws to get a definitive read on commerciality (and level of) other than they are increasingly confident. I'm very encouraged and this will turn to excited if they get some material gas flows. Sort of feel like we have been here before, however, this is a much more professional and developed technical approach, which has benefited from the previous Le Chiffre/Klebb trial, error and learning. This is a big IMO but I'm sure they are still learning a bunch more with Jaws and would be confident they could significantly refine future wells and techniques to maximise future well productivity and ultimate recoveries.

Good time to revisit that Dickens quote....A Tale of Two Cities

GLTA - and looking forward to any short-term announcements and the Sep Quarterly....

Adaltiora

Expand

Well said Adaltiora,

Anxiety , doubt and fear have reached fever pitch over the last few months in our forum regarding jaws success.
I liken this announcement to a wink from your girl at the end of a nice restaurant evening . You know shortly your nights about to get a whole lot better .
This announcement is a direct wink from SN / management to say thanks to the stx believers , put your fears to rest , have a nice weekend because very shortly we will be making history transforming from a small cap to mid cap ( billion dollar plus company !.

Max

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(20min delay)
Last 28.0¢		Change 0.030(12.0%)		Mkt cap ! $801.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
24.5¢	28.3¢	24.5¢	$7.221M	26.82M

Well said Adaltiora, Anxiety , doubt and fear have reached fever...

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