Hi @speccypunter, if you play with oppies you always have to be...

Hi @speccypunter, if you play with oppies you always have to be prepared to let them die.

But you make a good point, now that the oppies are underwritten the company will be looking to keep the underwriter and the sub underwriters on side. However I reckon the underwriter would be most fearful of good news, not bad. But still, I don't doubt that the company would rather see the oppies in the money so that shareholders can exercise them. Anyway that is the way it should be because a company's first obligation is to its stakeholders, and shareholders, as the owners of the company, are the principle stakeholders. Option holders too, because they have invested in a right to become shareholders. Underwriters, I think, must come in further down, specially since they take a fee.

The main issue in the next two weeks up to exercise day is that if the heads are below 3c by a margin the oppies will not get exercised by the present holders, they would rather buy on market - or so one would think - BUT there is 4.6 mill worth of heads to be had by exercise of all those options, and even a casual glance at the offers shows that that quantity is just not available. (Morningstar still says fair value is 4c and a quick glance shows only 8 mill heads in the offer below 4c. - ie $240,000 worth)

The underwriters on the other hand are big winners if they exercise the oppies under their agreement - how else can you get hold of $4.6 mill worth of STM at 3c?? IMO, that is why the SP is languishing, and I have no doubt that it is being manipulated.

Also IMO, the company would not dare to withhold important information, and so I think we will see assays shortly assuming they are available.

Now if the assays are good (even only of the same level as the upper part of Bram 1) we option holders will be the winners and the underwriters will have to wait for their next good thing (which will come, as sure as eggs) -- on the other hand, if the hole is a dud, or the company sits on its hand the underwriters are likely to be big winners in the medium term.

Just as an aside. I keep an informal list of events which I think act against small investors (those you might call Mums and Dads) in the expectation that there will eventually be a clean up of the rules and culture of share trading on the ASX. It could, or even should, take the form of a royal commission. But who knows? And I would hate to see STM made a spectacle, either by their own hand, or by being gullible in the hands of ruthless sofs and brokers. I'm sure that will not happen, so I expect a sound even handed view of progress in the next week.

Long term, your other main point holds true - this is an outstanding opportunity, and that fact holds sway.

Please readers, weigh my skepticism and my optimism against your own views, and take into account your own needs. Do not allow an anonymous commentator to influence you.