Ultimately there are lots of pieces to the jigsaw puzzle and you try to get an accurate picture on the amount of net reservoir and amount of net pay per fluid type.
Each measurement is adding to that story. There is always more than one explanation for a single measurement but the real value is when you put all the data together and it’s all painting the same picture.
Mudgas is not definitive as there are multiple reasons for having elevated mudgas. Having it as high as it is being reported (compared to background) is often positive sign of mobile hydrocarbons and the ratio of components can be indicative of fluid type, but not definitive.
Elevated resistivity in combination with low GR is a good sign of potential HC but not definitive (could be low porosity sandstone or some influence of mineralogy).
The most definitive data on fluid type is the sample to surface, this is then combined with formation pressure gradient data to extrapolate fluid type at one point in space to a column height. Logging data is not definitive but will also indicate fluid type and inform the location for taking pressure measurements and fluid samples (density neutron/ NMR / resistivity) throughout the length of the wellbore - your last point.
The most definitive data on porosity, fluid saturation and permeability (leading to developable net pay) is core, which calibrates the petrophysics model to extrapolate away from the core samples using the log data.
Right now there is no definitive information on fluid types, or net pay, but there are pieces of the jigsaw that when combined with Wireline logs, core and fluid samples will complete the picture (at M-2 location only).
Todays announcement is about as good as you can be with the data to hand without the company over committing. It provides facts on the limited data to let people decide their own opinion on whether this is good or not. They don’t have the definitive data either!
Shortly we will get more parts of the jigsaw and fingers crossed this will all be pointing in the same direction.
This structure will take many wells and a fair amount of study time to uncover a reliable range of in-place and developable resources. I’m in it for long-term.
Hope that helps
DYOR yadda yadda.
Cheers
IVZ Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
