mr market is still viewing MCR as a "call option" over nickel prices ............
its still some ways off actual production, and there will be a number of steps reqd to get to that point:
1. new offtake with BHP (or china inc) .......we know that bhp is short ore.......and we know that deals have been done > than historical 65% payable .......this would be a +ve for mincor, as it would enable greater potential mine lives ......all parties would understand that ........imho - bhp will want 5+ yrs supply .....
2. financing of 1st development .........the gold proc will go part-ways to achieving this .......perhaps a small debt and small hedge package, and say 10-20m in equity....
3. inc in nickel price to circa 650-700 us/lb for > 6-months ........arguably this is circa 6-12 months off ......but "who knows !" ......the drawdowns on shfe / lme show a significant shortfall in available new supply ......
4. annoc re pre feasibility study for Cass ......looks "shallow" and solid in terms of tonnes / vertical meter !, plenty of upside in the resource .....
so - whats the value equation ......
10-15Kt per annum for 5-yrs, at say us7/lb, with opex in the 3.50-400/lb range ........
plus 30-35k oz (assuming some of the resource goes into reserves ......) for 3-5 yrs ......
remains a pretty good (great ?) option over future Ni prices (imho) .....
rekon the market is slowly getting this picture ......
rgds
Value_Hunter
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