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TPD

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21.0¢ talon energy ltd

Lots could happen between now and December. (Not predicting they...

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Chancerman

42 Posts.

84

14/08/23

15:04

Post #: 69328046
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Originally posted by invertedva: ↑

As others have pointed out, some are selling their STX to buy TPD. The relative shareprices are equilibrating to eliminate the arbitrage opportunities.
Ideally, STX would've held at 44 cents and TPD moved up to reflect the takeover price.
The prices of STX and TPD are essentially anchored to each other now. What happens to the STX shareprice doesn't really matter (in terms of this merger) until when it's time to vote, as the board has unanimously endorsed the deal. No amount of screaming will change this fact.
Hopefully by the end of the year STX's price will be above 50 cents and, hopefully, closer to 60 cents. Because that's when TPD shareholders will need to make their decision. The rest is short-term noise.

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Lots could happen between now and December. (Not predicting they will).
1. Mongolia could show good gas flow and be worth 10cps to TPD.
2. STX increases reserves adding 40cps to STX (and so 20cps to TPD)
3. BPT bids for STX to increase its reserves.
4. STX sells a gas field for cash.
5. Walyering gas finally flows.

For me, the one to watch is China iron ore demand. China's population and economy is shrinking. It is possible for iron ore price or volume to sink below breakeven. How will Gina/MIN respond? Hunker down or get aggressively into gas? If they withdraw, bring on STO and BPT?

TPD Price at posting: 19.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
8 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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