Ann: Successful $14 Million Placement to Advance Antler Project, page-20

Interesting article copied from the (UK based) International Mining Journal weekly newsletter. Reiterates view of stronger position of US-based copper developers. Doesn't mention NWC specifically, only multinationals ...

US copper developers may never have been in a more positive spot with scrutiny of the country's copper supply by president Donald Trump and the potential for import tariffs, combined with efforts to reduce the time it takes for federal agencies to issue permits.

Copper, a late-comer in 2023 to the country's critical mineral lists, is now the subject of a government initiative looking to bolster domestic production, given that the red metal is used in military hardware, in addition to being a key industrial metal.

Domestic copper production of 850,000t in 2024 came mainly from Arizona and accounts for 52% of US copper supply, which means it cannot meet its own copper demand.

Its 800,000t of copper imports in 2024 came from Chile (35%), with which it enjoys a free trade agreement, Canada (26%), Peru (7%), Mexico (7%), and Democratic Republic of Congo (2%), according to the US Census Bureau.

The US is also an exporter of copper, with 880,000t in 2023 of copper scrap and waste, mainly sent to China, and 341,000t in 2023 of ore and concentrate, including to China.

Tariffs are inflationary, and the price of copper in the US is already increasing as consumers build inventories and attempt to get ahead of a possible supply crunch.

One group expected to receive a boost are the handful of companies with copper development projects in the US, many of whom received a lift in their share prices following Trump's election victory in 2024 on expectations that he would smooth the permitting path and enable mines to get built.

Domestic copper production has been declining in the US for years, as permitting is proving a significant obstacle for new projects to come online. In 2024, production dwindled to 1.1Mt, the lowest level in more than three decades.

Projects that could benefit from expedited permits include Rio Tinto's Resolution project in Arizona, Northern Dynasty Mineral's Pebble in Alaska, Antofagasta's Twin Metals in Minnesota, Trilogy Metals' Arctic in Alaska and Arizona Sonoran Copper's Cactus in Arizona.

The country has the second-slowest permitting and development process globally, just after Zambia. On average, developing a mine in the US from first discovery to production takes 29 years, data from S&P Global showed.

Price impact

Copper prices have risen over 18% since the beginning of this year, rallying on the weakening dollar and US tariff mayhem.

The US dollar has declined more than 4% year-to-date, the biggest drop at the start of the year since 2008. Markets are weary amid uncertain US policies and US President Donald Trump causing whiplash with his back-and-forth on various tariffs.

So far, Trump has also implemented levies on Canada, Mexico, and China, while planning to introduce ‘reciprocal' tariffs on April 2.

Additionally, Trump signed an executive order requesting the US Department of Commerce to start an investigation into whether copper imports pose a threat to national security. As a result, Goldman Sachs said it expects a 25% copper tariff before the end of the year, predicting a scramble for copper from US importers and international traders in the coming months.

Morgan Stanley expects a rise in copper prices as the potential copper tariffs loom.

"With tariffs not yet imposed, there is a strong incentive to send metal to the US, tightening markets in the rest of the world as well," Morgan Stanley analysts said.

The copper stockpile in LME warehouses has already reached its highest level since 2021, jumping to 102,000t at the end of February, as traders scramble to move copper to the US before any tariffs arrive.