Mate- I agree with you but am still trying to reconcile the investor webinar last Wednesday with the CR. I took the time again today to listen to see if I am missing something fundamental between what was said and what then occurred. There are always 2 arguments you can make for a CR at any particular juncture, for and against.
People's issue is that on the back of the presentation, if you go and look at the comments in the threads immediately after the presentation but before the CR announcement it was pretty clear that people were well pleased there was no CR on the horizon. It was clearly the impression people seemed to have gotten, rightly or wrongly.
Below is a transcript I typed up from the webinar (removing some idiosyncratic expressions).I am happy to be corrected if I have mis-heard and If there is any doubt people can go to the point in the recording and listen for themselves and to also listen for other context I am perhaps missing:
Presentation Webinar: from minutes 19:35 – 21:19:Question: ‘So I guess further with that Andrew isit likely that additional funds will be required from shareholders foradditional drilling or resource development or will the existing funds you havecurrently be sufficient in the short term one to two years?
Answer: Yeah I think we're fine we've gotthe funds we've got to do the two well drilling programme we have got theoptions expiring in September which are well in the money at the moment theyare going to deliver to us if I exercised another $20 million and we haveanother $10 million in another pocket that we got from the sale of the permitto EOG here in Australia so we are very well resourced and I think theobjective is to get these oil columns that we have encountered understood,appraised and turned into reserves and once you get to that point a whole slewof other funding options become available to you to you which means raisingequity becomes the least desirable thing for us to do especially at currentinterest rates you know you have repayment agreements with trading firmswanting to off- take the oil and fund the development that way we have ourpartner Sonangol a very well resourced company who wants us to continue asoperator forward you know we would be looking to leverage all of those sourcesof capital as the most cost effective way and least dilutive way to developthese fields’
To be fair, the question was whether additional funds would be required from shareholders. The question was not put as ro whether the company was about to raise more capital from external sources which indeed might have elicited a different response. The problem is that all of the other comments about how cashed up we are, funding options and leveraging those options in the least dillutive way seems, at least to my mind, was incongruous with the CR that followed shortly thereafter. This is what I think people have been struggling with.
Also to be fair, the company if asked might say that had they known the upper sheet estimates at that juncture they might have given a different response. In that case perhaps the company could have announced the CR acknowledging it was not what shareholders had expected on the back of the webinar presentation but that the upper sheet estimates were next level which then immediately opened up the realisation there was a whole array of extra costs that needed to be funded in the short term. This, in my opinion, would have possibly quelled to a large extent the grumblings that keep popping up, That, and more precise detail about what the $10M is going to be spent on.
I say all this in the hope that it gives a bit of different perspective to the whole and issue- it would be nice to put it to bed and move on, because as you say its happened and not changing. This company is evolving at a rapid pace with a great team who know what they are doing. They wont miss the mark. Things like the recent CR will be ancient history once other developments pile on in the very short term.
Before I am accused of downramping I picked up another good chunk of shares yesterday just before 3pm because CR or not the fundamentals have not changed- only massively improved and look to continue on that trajectory.
GLTAH onwards and upwards!
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