It would be a guess at this stage as it depends on many factors...

It would be a guess at this stage as it depends on many factors that are not known yet (speed of gas build, ultimate peak rates, how long high flow rates last for, price of gas in the market, plus many other things).

I prefer to ask the question of what flow rate from J1 will justify the declaration of commercial success and reserve certification, and that will also trigger the drilling of J2.
I think that number would likely be somewhere between 500mmscf-1mmscf/d. I think they could get to that rate anytime from late Dec through to end of 1st Qtr 2019.
After that the ultimate peak rate could go on to 2,3,4 mmscfd but that will take time.

I would be looking to that first qtr next year for commercial success and with that comes refined processes for the next well (they will get big improvements as they do more wells) and more definition around EUR’s and overall economics of the larger project.

Imo