Hi copperroad and others too,
I agree with most of what you are saying. I diverge on the timeline of revaluation that will come in stages.
Most "developers" have to go through finance (BC8), permitting (not BC8), construction (not BC8), commissioning (yes BC8 but a known ore body so no surprises expected); causing an orphan period as investors layer in according to risk tolerance.
There is minute risk in the case of BC8 in the commissioning sense. All mining has risk but that is there for current producers too. The orphan stage tends to unwind between 12months to commercial production and 6 months to achieve that. The caveat is that the build phase has to be running to budget and on time. BC8 have two mills with minimal work to do; thus negating the orphan stage; and with cash flows to boot shortly.
They have cleverly mitigated the risk associated with their minimal debt to re-start Paulsons. They did that via the Kal East deal to toll treat at Paddington.
They have lowered the cost to production and secured higher price equity and lower cost debt no doubt. They have sweetened the early post commissioning phase by starting to mine the super rich cross fault associated ore grading 1/2 to 3 oz per tonne ready on the ROM pad. This latter point only graded at the ROM HGrade of 4.5g/t but I am not the only one to see that air-leg teams will cream that grade to boost throughput grades once the mill is announced to have achieved commercial production.
These are all indicators of attraction for early bird investors that are keen to secure cheap exposure to high grade production managed by an excellent team. Now add the turning sentiment for junior producers. Now add the explosive set up for gold on a technical and fundamental basis. There are some minor confirmations needed that will spark liquidity into this fairly illiquid stock. The way to secure solid volume in this instance is to push share price sharply higher so as to pull forward supply. Investors underwater will part with their shares near or at cost on a sharp spike that they fear will quickly evaporate. The depth is building on the buy side providing a hint this thesis is the correct one. Only time will tell but I am not budging until BC8 is overvalued and only then to lighten up.
The exploration prospects are materially higher as well. The cash flow is near enough for a lot of investors but the funds (big money) is a way off yet. Family offices and HNW's appear to have arrived alreadyValuation is not based on ounces as I have seen high cost producers with thin margins struggle to gain any share price traction. I have witnessed modest production at extremely cheap cost trade at a market cap well above some companies producing 4x that. It is all about the money. That is why the air-leg is so important. That is why the grade at Paulsons and Coyote is so important. Yes they will have to spend a lot to get to 3x operating mines but that is why the Kal East deal is so important. Brilliant work by this company and great timing too (finally).
DYOR and GLTAH CW
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- BC8
- Ann: Successful Capital Raising to Restart Paulsens
Ann: Successful Capital Raising to Restart Paulsens, page-99
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 33 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add BC8 (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
36.8¢ |
Change
0.008(2.08%) |
Mkt cap ! $161.7M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
36.0¢ | 36.8¢ | 36.0¢ | $109.4K | 302.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 29266 | 36.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
37.0¢ | 579237 | 11 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 16984 | 0.365 |
20 | 343708 | 0.360 |
5 | 125271 | 0.355 |
6 | 374451 | 0.350 |
1 | 20000 | 0.345 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.370 | 579237 | 11 |
0.375 | 71472 | 5 |
0.390 | 105091 | 2 |
0.395 | 160928 | 5 |
0.400 | 610709 | 6 |
Last trade - 15.32pm 23/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
BC8 (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
SER
STRATEGIC ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED
David DeTata, Managing Director
David DeTata
Managing Director
SPONSORED BY The Market Online