Ann: Successful Commissioning of Second Foiler at Madelaine, page-13

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HarpoonSpecter

410 Posts.

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25/11/16

10:35

Post #: 20881073
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Originally posted by CEM ↑

At 20m units sold this year... if they even sell that many, YOW is still not break even. I think this is the problem.

Breakeven used to be 13m approx and under the early model that would have been a great outcome. With the spend, dilute, spend attitude of this management the new breakeven is way north of 20m.

This in itself is the main problem. I don't doubt that YOW can sell 20m but there is certainly some query over larger numbers which are now needed for small profit. This is why their incentive shares are based on sales not profit, and winning of accounts, not profit. Dumbest thing I have ever heard but anyway.

They have had over 20k stores including WG and WM for long enough to drive serious numbers and they just aren't there. The dream of selling 100m in US is long fading and hence the attention diversion of new markets

Investors know this and have bailed in a big way. The additional wrapper means squat when they aren't even at capacity on one wrapper. For all of their sprucing they aren't even confident enough to run a national marketing campaign for their national footprint. Every indication from mgt is weak in their attitude to this product and every timeline is behind. The one that matter that is - like profit. Commissioning a second wrapper that can't be used is not important.

Ask yourself a simple question. Why would you expand into "competitive smaller markets" when you have an entire untapped uncompetitive one? Why would you increase the cost base for such a relatively weaker opportunity? I'll tell you why, because the writing is on the wall and has been for a while, it costs more, it is taking longer, the consumer isn't responding the way they thought, and the market cap is still way too big. To maintain it they need another future fantasy to buy into which is the Global Expansion!

Global Expansion for those in the real world means tearing up a lot more cash in an attempt for a US campaign that is average at best"

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To suggest that Yowie have or are close to tapping out the US market is rubbish. Look at the most recent Nielsen data, Yowies are in less than like 5% (from memory) of convenience channels. Do you think Walmart are happy to have Yowies in every store but less than 5% of convenience stores are interested?

I was in New York and Boston 6 months ago and of course they are around (thanks Budfox for the updates) but I never saw one. There are probably millions of New Yorkers who have never seen or heard of a Yowie to start. Market penetration takes a long time for new products.

YOW Price at posting: 55.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Successful Commissioning of Second Foiler at Madelaine, page-13

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