Ann: Successful Completion of $6m Placement & Launch of $2m SPP, page-123

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happydayz

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18/01/25

03:33

Post #: 77456804
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Originally posted by mooselington: ↑

Yeah I think this is why the market struggles to estimate the potential value of this company and the SP never breaks out on good news... They know the steps they need to take to prove the tech, and know it's clearly going to be a disruptor to the memory market - but analysts need to which pie before they even think about what size the slice is (in order to work out what the share price should be).

its a double edged sword - every time they advance the tech, they're discovering more benefits that unlock different markets. Single shot programming, area-based programming, speeds, power etc. was all largely unknown before PL4. That's a little over a year ago. Each of these changes the potential applications.

It has been very hard to describe exactly what market this addresses, but I think it's starting to become clear where the real value can be delivered...

a few observations / opinions:
> The language implies they are very confident in scaling to 20nm.
> PH's BD work has given them clear insight about what the market wants.
> It's clear that area-based programming is very important to someone in the market. This type of evolution will support innovation in neuromorphic computing and AI. a very hot market.
> They've decided It's in the company's best interest to continue developing the tech and driving the enterprise value up with more catalysts. Not just rest on 20nm.
> they're confident they are capable of solving the next steps themselves (with the help of the right partners). No need to sell out yet, it's still all very doable.
> they would have had to consider the extended timeline and whether taking longer could decrease the enterprise value (e.g. allowing competitors to get an extra, etc). Perhaps this was informed from their BD efforts - the market may have told them if you can solve this, you'll be the only ones.

Roadmap benefits to Enterprise Value:
>last year we were talking about a single catalyst (PL6) to drive up the enterprise value before a sale, now we have several (PL6, pursuing licencing agreement, Infineon design and validation, Taiwan Tier 1 tape out.l, imec testing.
> roadmap encourages would be acquirers to think fast about what action they will take (once certain minimum hurdles are achieved).
> the jump in rhetoric about licencing could be a deliberate attempt to open the doors to people to come have a chat - maybe even convert them into an acquirer.

Let's look at it from a buyer's perspective:
- I would want to buy before 4DS have solved everything and the market prices it fairly (could negotiate on the risk of not achieving all the development outcomes)
- I would want to buy before 4DS has signed any licencing agreements (so I could have it all to myself - avoid massive costs to terminate if unwanted exclusivity)
- I would also want to buy before 4DS signs any licencing agreements as this would increase enterprise value (more expensive to buy)

So thinking that way, it still mat get bought out well in advance of this timeline being completed...

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Agreed got me some at .037 back on the rollercoaster, will own the park and the casino and the hotel if this goes again. Probably not the Casino. People don't like them anymore. At least in Australia anyway can't blame em.

Investors don't understand once this 20 nm on the 6th platform is done it will be the fat lady sing ing.for the last time. this time. jst imaging a price of .50 cents.

Happydayz forever and ever. I would play my guitar into the sunset. might even pay jimmy a visit. love this guitar piece drop d and then a semi tone down as well if you want to learn it. not long now 4DS Friends and Newbies.

4DS Price at posting: 3.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Successful Completion of $6m Placement & Launch of $2m SPP, page-123

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