Fair comments
@92electrons.
After the 1982 rout and the 4 or 5 after that, I am fairly cognisant that it does not matter what you own when markets tumble, there will be lots and lots and lots of sellers wanting to offload, especially if they hold something that it still in profit when they sell. I want to be a buyer, 6- 9 months after that, when people are really hurting.
I am currently around 80% invested, 20% liquid with my equity based portfolio. My equity portfolio goal is 60% / 40% by year end. A couple of recent takeovers have helped my to increase liquidity involuntarily which is fine by me with another significant holding in play to private equity.
I only wanted to see one more bull market before I leave the earth and this is it. If it lasts longer than I think, that is very good for us all, including me.
I really don't need any paid economist, whose
opinions are bought by their masters, to tell me what the future holds. I have eyes and ears and can smell the greed all around me, using leverage wherever it is offered. Economists have rarely predict changes in market sentiment before they happen, but are very good at explaining them after they have happened. I was 6 months too early in 2007 (that peaked in November, before the 2008 rout. But that made no difference in 2009 when the bargains were absolutely everywhere, my best call was Macquarie Bank at $14 having sold out at $90 when they completed a CR. That was a big multi bagger. Twice. PDN was bigger, but ultimately caught me in 2017 or 2018, after the Chinese stuffed us.
I subscribe to a series of overseas based "independent" macro services. These guys run their own subscription based businesses that "fly or die" based on their weekly/monthly macro notes. There is no unanimous view of the future outlook, which is why I am still heavily invested and have been grossly overweight commodity/resource/green energy stocks. My instinct is to get out in the current euphoria and confidence, but there is evidence the final leg of this bull market will be very strong, so I remain uncomfortably in, knowing I have already cashed out 20% with more to come. That is my call, for my circumstances only. Every investor needs to form their own view.
There is almost no doubt, interest rates will rise too much, too quickly to snuff out inflation (and kill the bull). A currently sanguine market, seems to want to wait until it happens and then bolt. My experience tells me it is unlikely to work out so kindly.
I will not sell out of PDN, it holds a special significance to me in terms of creating wealth, 15 years ago, that does not mean I won't reduce my holdings and pay my taxes, so that I can be ready for what I believe lies ahead.
GLTASH, but please, be careful with your forecasts, dreams can be easily disturbed by reality. DYOR
(20min delay)