It seems that with the entitlement offer to existing shareholders at 15.5c and with shares trading hands below that value it would be understandable why shareholders would be asking themselves why they would want to participate.
I agree with your statement - all going to hinge on performance and production, and metal prices as well of course. Looks like most of the NCZ shareholders have doubts about the companies ability to perform whereas a large overseas investor Sibanye see the potential of both Mt Lyell and Century operations.
As for the acquisition of Mt Lyell, its a good idea to diversify out on one metal from one operation (Zn from Century) but I am wondering how long Mt Lyell was on the market and what were Vedanta's reasons for selling. I wonder if they had any other interested parties and why they didn't progress?
The problem for NCZ retailers going forward is that with Sibanye sitting at 19.9% of the expanded NCZ register they are unable to increase their holdings without launching a formal takeover bid. I would expect that once Sibanye understand both the NCZ operations and are content with their performance, they will launch to full acquisition before the market wakes up to the possibility of value.
I'm in the same dilemma myself, I can top up at 15.5c but even if metal prices lift the ASX is notorious for mispricing/underpricing base metal producers, and all I'm doing is holding the bag for a long time, and taking all the risks of startup and commissioning and then having Sibanye come in and pick the NCZ operation for about the same amount as its trading today as soon as zinc and copper prices lift and the operations begin to perform. That capital could be better used elsewhere... including even buying Sibanye shares themselves, as the company looks pretty interesting and pays dividends and is obviously growing - its just a shame that so many of the assets are in South Africa.
I think I've managed to convince myself to exit NCZ except for a small trading parcel, all the best to those staying in and holding.
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