Whomever buys it would be assuming around US$149M debt (A$224M)...

Whomever buys it would be assuming around US$149M debt (A$224M) due by 2026, paying between 10 to 12.5% per annum. This doesn’t include the US$25M CN.

However much one likes the assets, this probably explains why the market cap is where it is. Without cashflows, they’re just going to have to keep asking the market for cash at ever more dilutive levels and I think this is probably the last one they’ll get away with.

As others (like Deme and Marc) have suggested, if they can substitute out some of the Nordic bond with US Government debt, they’ll get out of jail. The fact they’ve now got the US$15M DOD reimbursement approved is hopefully a good(ish) sign that they’re starting to make inroads on that front but it seems to be moving slowly. But that’s the bull case here, in my opinion. It just comes down to servicing their corporate debt and subbing as much of it out for government debt as is possible.