It's fraught making any SP predictions but I would be surprised if there was significant selling pressure for a couple of reasons:
1. The institutions and friends of MLD management got their shares a month ago, so if they were going to sell and realise a stag gain, they would have done so by now.
2. Retail investors were only entitled to 12.5% of their existing holding and a maximum of 25% (if able to apply for over-subscriptions). So if they were looking for a quick gain, they could have sold existing shares prior to the issue of new ones.
The only concern is the 2.95m shares issued to Euroz. Brokers of that ilk always dump shares after issue, particularly if they can do so at a profit. But I'm guessing there were a number of shareholders who missed out on the SPP due to its timing and compressed timeframe. I'm now aware that there are SMSF people like yourself, that may have applied for more shares if able. Both of these shareholder classes should be rightly upset with MLD due to the way the capital raising was done, especially given the time of year. However, if they can get past the irritation, they may look to increase holdings as a minimum 6cps div from MLD in FY21 looks highly. Adding in franking credits, this is around a 6% return on a SP of $1.40, and most of the required work is in hand. So I'd expect the Euroz shares to be soaked up over a fairly short timeframe ...
Just my musings ....
MLD Price at posting:
$1.39 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
