Ann: Successful completion of Share Purchase Plan, page-76

"The day FDV becomes cash-flow positive (which has never happened yet) might be further away."

With long-duration growth businesses in the early stages of their evolution, the exact point at which they reach self-sustaining commercialisation is not overly relevant to their intrinsic valuation. As long as they do reach that point of self-sustaining commercialisation within a reasonable time frame.

And the leading indicator of that is a meaningful degree of organic growth in the top line, because as long as that continues, at some stage the Cash Inflow-Outflow jaws will open.

But whether that happens a year or two later doesn't dramatically alter the fundamental value.


"I've got a feeling that the current sell-off is more than just tax-loss selling."

Its certainly a large part of it. This year the effect is particularly marked, as evidenced across many illiquid small and micro-cap stocks.

The capitulation and loathing of the small, illiquid end of the market is palpable, even more so if the stock in question is of a technology kind.

The other extraneous factor that would have contributed to the decline is the market's perception of the forward direction of interest rates (which feed into the discount rate applied to future cash flows).

At some point the rubber band of the expectation of higher rates will become fully-stretched, and even snap back, at which point that technical headwind turn to to become a tailwind for technology stocks.

But these are merely short-term technicalities which are little more than "noise".

Ultimately, to profit from an investment in FDV comes down to forming a view as to whether or not the following portfolio of ventures collectively amount to more than the current $135m at which the market values the listed parent entity: