Ann: Sugarloaf Production Update , page-53

Esteon I totally agree. It still appears AUT will be cash flow acruive from early Q4. We are currently only 85 days out from Q4 and have basically $36M in the bank.

Once we are cash flow accruive we will have around $275,000 net accruing by my estimates/guestimates, rising by around $27500 each time a new well becomes earnings acruive at roughly two per month. from a point roughly 6 months after Q4 begins.

Each time a new well is drilled assuming costs reduce to around $5.5M and we pay on average 20% interst we will be up for $1.1M per well. At that rate its 22 months from Oct at two well per month before we have enough accruive cashflow to pay for one well per month. And 42 months before we can pay for two per month from cash flow.

Based on 2 wells per month we will need an 12 M CR in around 18 months from Oct this year. Beyond that point we should be done and dusted with any need for CR other then an acceleration of plans.

However assumming some money is spent on acquisitions and allowing for some taxes etc, I see another CR of approx $30M around this time next year. But given my cash flow modelling we will be imo a far bigger company with more then around 25 wells compared to our current approx 6 wells at present. 4 times the underlying assets deliviering cash flow and a similar CR, hence roughly a 1/4 relative CR.

At 4 times the underlying assets its imo fair to assume we should be 3+ times the current sp of 80c, say 2.40+ all other factors remaining equal. Possibly up to 3.20

To then do a $40M CR 12 months from now at say $2.20 imo worst case = additional 18M shares, round up to 20M with an SPP.

We would be a 558M mcap prior to CR so a dilution of around 7% would then allow us to drill roughly 3 wells per month for 4 months then 4+ and it would continu to grow.

Now you might be wondering why ive projected this far out etc etc, but it basically shows the incredible position of strength imo we have going forward now.

There are of course risk obviously associated with the play, the industry, political, geographic, envrionmental and most of all energy prices. So definitely do your own research and seek expert advice. Honestly - Do not base decisions on forum posts.