The projected operational cash flow of $48m is by far and away...

The projected operational cash flow of $48m is by far and away the biggest risk to the completion of stage 1, this if $4m cash inflow, per month, after non-stage 1 capex. This to me is a huge ask and the reason I'm at hold not buy.

I can see this going three ways, best to worst scenarios:

• They make on their projections and there will be a huge re-rate (with smaller re-rates along the way depending on quarterly results);
• They either fairly to hit their projected operational cash flow and/or there's a blow-out in stage 1 costs and either a large dilutive raise or debt is required;
• As per the second point but either there's no appetite in the market, debt isn't available or a secured creditor decides they've had enough and the company is forced into administration.

My best guess would be the middle scenario based on past performance along with other future unknowns like Covid, weather events etc.

I will keep watching and hopefully dip my toes in at some stage, and yes, I know that if I do wait I'll be paying more but with decidedly less risk.