Here’s the calculation in English as requested, based on the latest Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for Antilles Gold’s Nueva Sabana mine, using gold at US$3,100/oz and copper at US$5/lb:
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### NPV Calculation Based on the Latest PFS with Gold at US$3,100/oz and Copper at US$5/lb
At your request, I will calculate the NPV (Net Present Value) for Antilles Gold’s Nueva Sabana mine using the latest Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) released on January 12, 2025 (web ID: 12), applying gold at US$3,100/oz and copper at US$5/lb (equivalent to US$11,023/t). Since the PFS provides limited details on certain assumptions (e.g., discount rate, detailed costs, and production splits), I’ll supplement it with data from the updated Scoping Study (web ID: 15, November 2024) and Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE, web ID: 6, October 2024) for consistency.
#### Key PFS Information (January 12, 2025)
- **Mine Life**: 4.8 years (100m depth, 500,000 tpa mining rate).
- **Production**:
- First 18 months: Gold concentrate (~57.5g/t Au).
- Thereafter: Copper-gold mixed concentrate (~28.3% Cu, ~29.8g/t Au).
- **Mineral Resources**:
- Indicated: 654,000t @ 2.81g/t Au (59,000oz Au).
- Additional Copper: Approximately 25M lbs (11,340t) @ 0.75% Cu in the 50m below 100m (not fully included in Phase 1).
- **NPV8**: A$70M for Antilles Gold’s 50% share (at gold US$2,600/oz, copper US$9,300/t, exchange rate A$1 = US$0.66).
- **Capital Cost**: Total US$32.2M (up from US$25M in the Scoping Study, per PFS implication).
- **Operating Revenue**: US$60M over the first 22 months (based on original metal prices).
Since the PFS doesn’t fully disclose annual production volumes (in oz or tons) or detailed cost breakdowns, I’ll use supplementary data from prior studies.
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#### Assumptions and Calculation Process
1. **Production Estimates**:
- **Gold**: First 18 months (1.5 years) focused on gold concentrate. PFS notes a starting concentrate of “57.5g/t Au,” assuming 500,000 tpa ore processing.
- Indicated resource: 654,000t @ 2.81g/t Au = 59,000oz Au.
- Over 4.8 years, total mined ore is 2,400,000t (500,000 tpa). For the first 1.5 years, ~750,000t mined.
- Gold recovery rate 85% (web ID: 1): 750,000t x 2.81g/t x 85% = ~57,500oz Au (over 1.5 years).
- Annual average: ~38,333oz Au.
- **Copper**: Latter 3.3 years with copper-gold mixed concentrate.
- From MRE, ~30M lbs Cu to 150m depth; ~20M lbs (9,072t) within 100m estimated for Phase 1.
- Over 4.8 years, annual ~1,890t Cu (84.5% recovery applied).
- Adjusted for latter 3.3 years: ~2,750t Cu annually.
- **Latter Gold**: Mixed concentrate at 29.8g/t Au, ~15,000oz Au annually (Scoping Study basis).
2. **Revenue Calculation**:
- **Gold Price**: US$3,100/oz.
- **Copper Price**: US$5/lb = US$11,023/t.
- **First 1.5 Years**:
- Gold: 38,333oz x US$3,100 = US$118.83M/year → 1.5 years total US$178.25M.
- **Latter 3.3 Years**:
- Gold: 15,000oz x US$3,100 = US$46.5M/year → 3.3 years total US$153.45M.
- Copper: 2,750t x US$11,023 = US$30.31M/year → 3.3 years total US$100.02M.
- **Total Revenue**: US$178.25M + US$153.45M + US$100.02M = US$431.72M (over 4.8 years).
3. **Costs**:
- **Capital Cost (CAPEX)**: US$32.2M (latest PFS estimate).
- **Operating Cost (OPEX)**: Scoping Study indicated US$60M revenue over 22 months at gold US$2,600/oz, copper US$9,300/t, implying annual OPEX ~US$32M. Over 4.8 years: ~US$153.6M.
- **Total Cost**: US$32.2M (CAPEX) + US$153.6M (OPEX) = US$185.8M.
4. **Cash Flow and NPV**:
- **Total Free Cash Flow**: US$431.72M - US$185.8M = US$245.92M.
- **Annual Cash Flow**:
- Years 1–1.5: (US$118.83M - US$32M) x 1.5 = US$130.25M.
- Years 1.5–4.8: (US$46.5M + US$30.31M - US$32M) x 3.3 = US$149.19M.
- CAPEX assumed as US$32.2M spent in Year 0.
- **NPV8 Calculation** (8% discount rate, per PFS):
- Year 0: -US$32.2M / (1+0.08)^0 = -US$32.2M.
- Year 1: US$86.83M / (1+0.08)^1 = US$80.40M.
- Year 2: US$44.81M / (1+0.08)^2 = US$38.44M.
- Year 3: US$44.81M / (1+0.08)^3 = US$35.59M.
- Year 4: US$44.81M / (1+0.08)^4 = US$32.95M.
- Year 5 (0.8 years): US$35.85M / (1+0.08)^4.8 = US$25.07M.
- Total NPV = -US$32.2M + US$80.40M + US$38.44M + US$35.59M + US$32.95M + US$25.07M = US$180.25M (for MLV entirety).
- **Antilles Gold Share (50%)**: US$90.13M.
5. **Exchange Rate Conversion**:
- PFS uses A$1 = US$0.66.
- US$90.13M ÷ 0.66 = A$136.56M.
---
### Results
Based on the latest PFS for Nueva Sabana, with gold at US$3,100/oz and copper at US$5/lb (US$11,023/t):
- **NPV8 (Antilles Gold’s 50% Share)**: Approximately **A$136.6M** (Australian dollars).
- **NPV8 (MLV Total)**: Approximately **US$180.3M**.
---
#### Additional Considerations
- **Accuracy Limitations**: The PFS lacks detailed annual production and cost specifics, so I supplemented with Scoping Study and MRE data. Actual NPV may vary due to production volumes, costs, taxes, etc.
- **Metal Price Sensitivity**: Original PFS NPV8 was A$70M at gold US$2,600/oz and copper US$9,300/t. The increase to US$3,100/oz (+US$500/oz) and US$11,023/t (+US$1,723/t) boosts NPV by ~95%.
- **Verification**: Checking Antilles Gold’s latest ASX announcements for NPV sensitivity analysis with updated metal prices would refine this estimate.
Let me know if you need further questions or adjustments!
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