follynoun:1. lack of good sense; foolishness."an act of sheer...

folly
noun:
1. lack of good sense; foolishness."an act of sheer folly"a foolish act, idea, or practice.
synonyms:foolishness, foolhardiness, stupidity, idiocy, imbecility, silliness, inanity, lunacy, madness, rashness, recklessness, imprudence, injudiciousness, lack of caution, lack of foresight, lack of sense, irrationality, illogicality, irresponsibility, thoughtlessness, indiscretion;
antonyms: wisdom, good sense

In English, the term is also used as "a popular name for any costly structure considered to have shown folly in the builder" ...
I guess this could be extended to business .... e.g. Calima Energy aka ... Alan's Folly OR from a shareholders view, speculating with shares in Calima Energy was "Cmonaussie's Folly", etc.


The concept development plan is complete folly ... shows lack of foresight and total lack of sense ... and CE1 has yet to raise that money. This CR just to pay the bills and do a little preparedness for production. While the land flip plan was at some point in time "a good plan" there was a high degree of illogicality about the $/acre that has been well and truly shown for what is was, because the acres were not the magic beans they needed to be in term of the CGR.

Here's why the production plan is complete folly. Oft referenced PONY had this to say in their latest Qtrly report
* " We are also contemplating asset dispositions" ... and yet we think there is room for additional development

* Low natural gas prices during the second quarter of 2019 resulted in pricing related, voluntary shut ins of approximately 32 MMcfe/d (5,300 boe/d) ... and CE1's plan is bring online an additional 50Mmcf/d

* third party infrastructure maintenance and expansion related shut ins of approximately 11 MMcfe/d (1,900 boe/d),

* total shut in volumes for the second quarter approximately 43 MMcfe/d (7,200 boe/d) ... so 86% of CE1 CDP

The highlight was PONY "Delivered over 800 bbls/d of propane during the second quarter of 2019 through the Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal to markets overseas, achieving a 275% premium over the domestic market price" ... helps to have foresight and partnering with Alta early in getting to be a part of the RIPET plan

"We believe that conditions could be right for natural gas pricing in western Canada to begin improving late in 2019 and into 2020" thank goodness ... I'd like to believe you Patrick but what conditions are improving ... the forward price of gas ... of course it ought to improve .... Winter is Coming (GoT anyone).

The Montney play that has crushed it over the last 2 days is my favorite ... 7Generations ... and why ... because they are in UCR acreage in the AB Montney and have superior options for their sales gas as well.

The folly (imbecility) was continuing to hold CE1 shares when:
1. Testing proved that acreage was not going to be UCR, not even super rich in the transition zone, but just plain old liquids rich just like Saguaro and Black Swan and a few others.... Could have exited at say 4cps
2. Mar Qtrly showed there was not enough cash to complete Phase 1 and a CR necessary. Could have exited at 3 ish along with lock up shares that were locked up no more
3. Presentations began illustrating a "production plan" ... Could have exited in low 2s

The next CR will be what ... at 1.2? ... Could have exited at 1.8cps

There is no logical reason to produce more gas (and at a marginal cost above our neighbours). Irrational.