According to Metal Focus the average margin over AISC for gold miners in 4th quarter 2023 was $US650 when average POG was $US1,977. With POG around $US2,350 in this quarter to date margins should be $US350 higher (assumes AISC went up somewhat) ie margins are nearly 55% higher now.
However, miners costs are higher than AISC - so true cash margins have probably increased by a lot more - eg is additional costs are $100, $200 and $300 above AISC then gold miner margins are now like 65%, 80% and 100% higher than in the Dec 2023 quarter.
GDX is only up cicra 25% and GDXJ 28% in the last 6 months - ie the SP of gold miners has substantially lagged the increase in the profitability of miners. And gold miners 6 months ago were considered very cheap or as Rick Rule noted cheapest in his lifetime, so now they are extra cheap.
If the POG holds around current levels, with increased profitability, we may see upside in gold miners of circa 50% and possibly more, even up to double if gold miners were priced at closer to fair value.
If gold miners do re-rate upwards then prices for developers will also go up a lot as well.
The above rationale explains why I consider SPR to still be under valued - compared to other gold stocks it may be considered to be over valued by some investors - but there is a bigger picture here and that is as SPR moves to production we should see a big re-rate as they have one of the best quality resources around the market - I am also confident that SPR will continue to add a lot more resources at a high grade. BGL underwent a big re-rate in the last 12-18 months and may have more to come.
SPR Price at posting:
69.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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