I disagree with your perception of market perception or at least it's degree of doubt. I think it's priced more like 50-50 than 1 in 10. A market cap of over $300M is prety substantial for a 10% chance at success.
I think the factors in the current share pricing are ; - The (IMO 50%) risk factor in getting finance - The expected dilution that will come from adding in a financing partner - The time to production (2014 at the earliest) - Risks around dealing with African governments and possible instability in the region - The time period before dividends could be paid (production not until 2014 AND possible financing repayments before profitability will allow dividends.
Illiquid
SDL Price at posting:
15.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held