Ann: Suspension from Official Quotation , page-50

Brenden,

The timing of the Wesizwe deal must be good for NKP. The deal values Wesizwe as is at $450 million and we know NKP has much more resource in the ground.

Xstrata will certainly play its strong hand in order to get the lowest possible acquisition price but I think Wesizwe have dealt them a bad hand and they will have to pay top dollar to get this.

Just a thought on potential value here (conservative). Lonmin produce 700,000 oz per annum and have a market cap of above 3 billion (approx USD 4.3 billion).

NKP have 30% more resource and probably at a lower cost so could argue a market cap of minimum USD 5.6 billion at full production in 2016. From there take off US$ 1.5 billion for total construction costs leaving at least $4.1 billion. Discount that back 6 years at 12% cost of capital and we are still looking at value generation of $2.6 billion.

The question is then how this $2.6 billion is split between NKP and the likes of Xstrata. Being sensible I do not see that NKP could get more than 30% of the beenfit for funding zero of the construction, that leaves USD 780 milliion for its shareholders or A$930 million. Today we have a market cap of A$ 326 million so we can up to 3 times current market price is within reason for me and yes it comes with a high risk warning.

BR
Max