I'm switching off and not reading all the posts cause I'm over all the doomsdayers piling on these BAL threads.... so sorry if some else has already posted a similar view of things.
For what it's worth guys... Whilst I'm sweating it out like the rest of you, I think things are going to be positive. Here is how I think this is playing out.
Go and listen to the 2/12 teleconference
http://investors.bellamysorganic.com.au/media/6c664053/Bellamys Australia Trading Update 021216.mp3
At the 8min mark, Andrea Chong (Goldman's) asks about initiatives to expand the distribution footprint in China. Laura replies they have a number of initiatives in place to build bricks and mortar distribution, and they have a number of discussions underway to increase this distribution channel. These discussions are progressing well and are the increased revenue they are expecting to come through late FY17/early FY18 (also mentioned in the 2/12 Business Update, last paragraph of Pg 3).
Andrea askes Laura for a quantification of these benefits, and Laura replies "Not at this stage, but of course, once it's quantified, we'll be more then happy to bring that to the market".
I think this is the announcement they are preparing to make.
I also think the amount the share price dropped shocked them (it did me!). There were a lot of positive messages to be found in the teleconference, but all the noise and focus was on the $120m H1FY17 forecast, and the rest of the positive messages have gone by the way side.
Hence I think they are rushing to bring forward the announcement of the deal they are striking and have placed shares in a holding pattern whilst they finalise the details, so as to protect shareholders/shareprice from all the negative and misleading media/hearsay/naysaying that has been going on.
Go and take a look at Pg 12 of BAL's May 2016 strategy presentation. The lion's share of China IF sales is via Mum and Bub Stores (MBS):
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160517/pdf/4379dskjmc9hn6.pdf
BAL management have had their eye on the ball to secure access via the MBS distribution channel for a while now. This is the key to their making big headways in increasing access to the China market.
And before all the Daigou supporters pile on this thread. I'm a big supporter of what you do taking Australian products to China, and I admire your building and creating a new leg in the retail channels.... and long may you continue to be successful.
But the reality is that BAL would be mismanaging the business if they relied solely on this C2C channel to reach China's consumers. BAL have worked for sometime now on successfully building their B2C e-commerce channel, and the bricks and mortar MBS channel is now the next logical step for them to secure.
These are my tea leaf readings, and I hope I'm close to the mark!
I encourage you to try and block out all the negative posts and do some research of your own.
