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Ann: Suspension from Official Quotation, page-192

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croser

1,115 Posts.

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19/05/17

22:45

Post #: 24806775
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Originally posted by webbj ↑

I'll be honest, I'm not across all the numbers. I'm not long or short so haven't drilled into them.
The companies market announcements, staff movements and quick overview makes this look precarious enough for me to stay away from for a long time.

But on your figures alone. Equity at 30c of $100m $300+m debt and $80m cash - still leaves a negative enterprise valuation which the trees need to cover. The problems are very succinctly put in many other posts.

Those being that there seem thus far to be few ways of really valuing them and few buyers. Even the buyers that did exist .. didn't.

From a capital structure point of view, its just bad all round in my view.

At 30c why would anyone tip in more for a CR - the risk is just enormous. The dilution, even at these prices would be devastating for long term holders. A tight top 20 is both a blessing and a curse, if just one wants out .. bad news, let alone the retailers that might follow suite.

Perhaps pertinently and most important of all though its a risk reward proposition.

To return to the share price of $1.50 not long ago of which the share price is down some 80% from .. the stock needs to increase some 500% . Its the brutal part of plunges like this. A capital raise makes the challenge of getting ones dough back even harder.

If the odds were excellent of even half that return, every hedge fund, his dog, short term traders, day trader and fund manager will pile if the suspension ends. I suspect they wont, for any number of the reasons above unfortunately.

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A quick example to buy 1 Ha with near mature trees I think the going rate is 300k per hectare. QIN owns lets say 1/3 the rest are owned by large investors. So 4000 Ha @ 300k thats $1.2 bil. The pharma in the US I read on one post worth $100 mil alone. The numbers are staggering. Have a look at the latest Fy report. This is not a Timbercorp where you plant trees and don't look after them each tree has got its own nanny here.

IMO

QIN Price at posting: 29.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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