Where would the world be without dreamers...
I love how all the doom and gloom punters pop up across most stocks, especially when those stocks are way oversold but long term fundamentals have actually improved.
Why are my dreams so pleasant?
* I can ignore the current SP as I only invested what I can afford and I have a long term (years not months) investment timeframe.
What are the various scenarios?
Care & Maintenance - this is IMO highly unlikely due to:
* We have sufficient stockpile which can be converted into cash as last resort.
* 2020 is approaching fast and Li end-users know that the turnaround is coming which in turn will increase the Li demand and they know there are limited, uncommitted Li producer out there...if A40 goes into C&M, it will take months to restart operations - so from a timeline perspective this C&M scenario is the least likely outcome IMO.
* We only owe ~ $40mil...in the scheme of things that is nothing.
Take Over* A popular conspiracy...the conspiracy is not the possibility of a takeover but a takeover on the cheap.
* luckily there is a considerable amount of S'holders with a much higher entry price, so even if MC & Co should be doing the sly as some here suggest...it would be that obvious and luckily for us even if the board recommends a cheap TO bid...there is the independent regulators valuation in conjunction with an almost inevitable class action by a large number of S'holders, as it is public knowledge that some big price catalysts are not far off:
_ Resource Expansion
_ New OffTake
_ Fines
* So that process will take some months and by then there is a high probability that the sector is turning and sentiment will be on our side.
Sure, GXY would love to get a great deposit with an operating mine on the cheap, but I have absolutely no doubt that some other big players would love to pick up the whole lot for 1/2 bil$ given the opportunity...I know GXY would be keen, but I don't think they have the $, like I said there are too many other players looking to diversify and have BIG bank accounts...see this for momentum gathering:
The more logical outcome will be that there is either a refinancing or a new offtake will be signed with most likely some form of prepayment, otherwise, there is no need for a 3 weeks TH, could be to do with our Hydroxide JV, but again, it would not need a 3 weeks TH as the market already knows most of the details... the 5kt shipment sent the last qrt to an unnamed potential off-taker has most likely been verified and the deal is ready to proceed, especially considering there is another 6.5kt shipment to (most likely) another potential off-taker on its way.
As I said, the big boys will need to make a decision soon, there is limited, uncommitted QUALITY Li Concentrate out there for the next few years.
All IMO
