[For @ccdavid The Reply feature is acting up again.]
I understand your concern. It's understandable. My best guess is that Macquarie was probably the trigger for this mooted CR. That's $30m right there that needs to be found and, probably more importantly, if MacBank are actually the trigger, it potentially speaks to a greater slow-down that PAN's lender is sufficiently worried about to call in the remainder of the outstandings. There's a fair amount of reading between the lines in that possibility, but that's what we investors must do. The balance of the mooted raising ($40-$50m, depending on whether the Zeta debt is retired) will probably be based the cash requirements for the next 12-18 months, as insurance in case general market conditions/sentiment sours further, which there is a very real risk of happening. In short: get in while the going is good... or better than they fear it might get!
Wrt to timing of the unwinding (conversion) of of the hedge book into debt, that's not necessarily a bad thing. By timing it when they did they saved $15m compared to previous reporting. Not unwinding the hedge book still meant having a liability on the balance sheet whose quantum ebbed and flowed with spot Ni and AUD Fx. By wrapping it up 2 weeks ago, they can point to a real saving compared to a relatively recent mark-to-market liability value of $25m - not to mention the potential difficulty in delivering physical against forward sales if you've stopped producing/shipping. Even if you have enough conc. stockpiled. You still need to deliver it and the small amounts per quarter relative to overall previously budgeted sales (when you're not producing and shipping anyway) create their own cost inefficiencies for delivery/shipping. In short: active hedge book with a floating liability value or a fixed $10m active debt. Both are liabilities. They get a tick from me (whatever that's worth) for winding it down when they did and saving $15m in the process.
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