Well Kikker you've outdone yourself this time with scaremongering.
Now you're saying they'll need to convert the spod in country which even you know is incorrect
For someone that invests in Lithium you know very little about it.
Conversion Plants use a bucket load of gas, and that just isn't an option in Mali which is why the JV is looking at building a plant in Europe or somewhere else.
You asked me a few days ago why I don't post my comments on LTR on the LTR forum
The answer is, I wouldn't lower myself to your standard.
If you look at my prior posts on the LTR threads, they are all constructive and contribute.Your posts here are quite the contrary.
I don’t post over there any more as I’ve recently sold the last of my small holding (it was a significant part of my portfolio prior to the T/O offer)
Why did I sell?
IMO LTR is fully priced for the stage it's at - which is why the price hasn't changed much in the last 2 months
Management lack of Lithium experience. I think you'll build the plant ok, but wouldn't want to be holding while you commission - that's when the lack of experience is likely to show.
You have a big funding hole and already $300m debt.
DSO is not going to fund this gap. Leo are talking $350/t to produce + shipping + Royalties, LTR will be higher cost than this, + 7.5% State Royalty, + 2% private Royalty + say 3% Royalty to the native land owners = 12.5%. + Shipping
6% good quality spod is currently $3400/dmt, even if the scale down to 1.2% was linear (which it's not) that implies $680/t for 1.2%
IMO you'd be very lucky to get $400/t, considering the low grade and impurities.
Even Core only got $951/dmt for 1.4% and that was when SP6 was almost double at $6000/t
After the adjustment for lower grade, SP6 price, moisture content - that implies just over $400/t for LTR ignoring the higher impurities.
IMO the reason LTR have been very quiet on DSO and have failed to deliver the updates they promised, is because there is no point in doing it if it makes a loss.
Leo's higher grade 1.68% with low impurities, makes a big difference to those rough calculations above
1.68 to 6% is a 3.57 multiple compared to LTR's 5x multiple (that's assuming they can get 1.2% - their better grades are very deep)
In the end it always comes down to money, we'll negotiate a deal to export our 2 shipments, make a bit of money out of it and test the logistics.
IMO it's the logistics the market most worries about with Leo, after all though it's only 300km longer than LTR's trucking route.
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