It's really quite simple, when you think about it, and know the wider history of these events.
DSO will be banned in Mali, like what is happening in many other African nations now - so there is no surprise there!
However, LLL may be permitted to send a small amount on the premise of testing logistics routes, provided they pay an additional tax or fee.
The new minister of mines is an academic, and if you search for academic mining papers in Mali, his name is on research papers about mining in Mali as far back as 2008. You can read some of them online. And some you will need to convert from the French, but that's easy, and their meaning is clear. Go and do the research and have a look, it's blatantly obvious what his perspective is, and why the Junta would appoint him.
For 15 years now, he has been advocating, via academic research papers, for Mali to take more tax and royalties and ownership of in-country mining projects.
I'd now expect that Mali is simply going to follow the Tanzanian example. You can look at the Tanzanian new mining law, especially if you follow companies like ORR, and see they'll take 35-40% which is a combination of JV, and ownership, and tax, and royalties, and free-carried stake, and community enhancement and projects fees - which means that when it's totally (and completely) all added up, it really amounts to about 55% of the project.
Western companies usually hide a lot of the fine details of these agreements, and the agreements are usually worded in a subtle way that gives novice investors the impression that companies like LLL/Ganfeng are getting 75%, when it fact it's really about 45%. Ganfeng doesn't care that much, they just want the spodumene, the real losers are the LLL shareholders, on the bottom line.
Nobody will tell you the real figures though, because they don't want you to know, but if you've been in mining for a while, you know how it works.
This is the reason that the Mali Military Junta has put this man into the Mining Ministers job.
The Junta kicked out France and the United Nations forces that were protecting Mali from Islamist insurgents. They replaced them with the Russian mercenary Wagner Group. A very large proportion of the taxes and royalties, and JV stipulations, and free-carried ownership of Mali mining project that the government takes, goes to the Wagner Group in return for providing the Junta with weapons made in Russia, and for other Wagner Group activities.
The Wagner Group and the Putin government have had a recent rocky relationship.
Whenever anyone displeases Putin, he has them assassinated, but he did not do this with the Wagner leader.
Why?
It's very clear indeed.
The Wagner Group own (and JV, and get paid in gold) via vast amounts of gold projects in Africa, and they bring in a very large amount of finance to the Russian government. This is why, instead of supplanting or destroying the Wagner Group leadership, Putin is now simply trying to convince or cajole their leadership to simply be merged into the standard Russian military forces. We are not sure how successful this process currently is.
Anyway, the bottom line is very simple indeed, the Malian Junta want more money from mining projects.
Very simple indeed.
It's a basic premise.
What needs to be negotiated now, is how LLL navigate this.
The Malian Junta have all the power and control, and can dictate to LLL, or simply replace LLL if they wish, because the Malian government don't care, and because they can always give the project to the Wagner Group if they wish.
It will be interesting to see how Simon and the board spin this to shareholders, and what language and words and euphemisms their public relations people come up with to try and dampen this down.
One thing is for sure though, you won't be told the whole truth, because the various thefts and threats and payments are usually hidden under the (false) guise of "Commercial-In-Confidence (CIC)", which is the biggest lie and ruse of all.
So let's wait and see what "hyperbole" comes out of this one eh!
Leo need to tread carefully.
Gw
Expand
(20min delay)