Well sure, but the rumours are feeding on the lack of clear and transparent communication, so there's an easy fix to that. They also seem to have been a primary driver of information surfacing in the case of FFX, including matters relevant to LLL that we learned about after FFX announced.
Having confidence in Hay, I have to assume he's fully aware how much damage is caused by (a) being quiet about details, (b) any suspension, (c) suspension then open then suspension, especially for what ostensibly seems to be the same category of issue.
So I can't quite explain why we halted the first time, which caused a $700m value loss, over what was apparently a DSO issue that hardly warranted any halt, yet alone justified entering into suspension. And with that issue remaining unresolved at the conclusion of suspension, I cannot understand then why we reopened if that was indeed the cause of the suspension. Of course we learn later, which wasn't listed as the rationale, that during the suspension there was a meaningful change to the equity arrangements, that we've been facing additional taxes/duties that we don't believe were applicable, and that LLL had to front up to a commission into FFX. We come out of the suspension and assume the bad news is done with.
Now we're back in suspension. About the applicability of the 2023 Mining Code. Again, unclear why that is warranted and how that differs from the previous suspension matters: other companies, including FFX, have had multi-year ongoing negotiations with Mali over applicability of tax rules, and continued trading successfully throughout. Regardless of the outcome, the additional suspension will knock off another few hundred million. So we have to assume, if we have faith in Hay, that it's "not great" news to justify the impact to shareholder confidence. Because it would surely be foolish to enter suspension again over any dispute that has less impact than $300m.
The only way I can see shareholders being satisfied at this point is reopening, "some" certainty from Mali, the price dropping nonetheless, a series of positive announcements starting with the resource upgrade, a period of calm from the Mali Gov so we can get the mine up and running successfully and restore investor confidence to fund the next step, commencing production, and money starting to land in the accounts. And even with all that running, it could be mid next year before we're back to IPO. Yes there's a lot of upside, but it seems these letters from the Mali Government are creating significant risk of jeopardising this new industry we're trying to bootstrap together.
My greater worry right now is an announcement coming through saying Hay has resigned.
LLL Price at posting:
50.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)