LLL 0.00% 50.5¢ leo lithium limited

"but at what point do we stop bending over??"It's like asking,...

  1. 4,994 Posts.
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    "but at what point do we stop bending over??"
    It's like asking, how long is a piece of string.

    I think this is ALL depends on how the dialogue is going with the Malian government. There are just so many facets to this discussion, and a few things that are beyond our control.

    I believe all 3 party wants a win in this situation, and this is probably what a win looks like for all parties:
    1. Malian government - wants to extract as much money and assets out of LMSA as possible, willing to do push really hard for it (legally or illegally) but at the same time, cant'/shouldn't scare any future/current investments away.
    2. Ganfeng - yes, even though they only care about the end product, you'd imagine that the higher the ownership % they hold, and the less import duty they have to pay, the more profitable Goulamina will be for them. So it would also be in their interest to negotiate with the Malian government for better LMSA terms.
    3. Leo Lithium - do whatever it takes to get rid of the FFX smell, and get to production without anymore hiccups so shareprice can start to recover, while retaining as much LMSA as possible.

    ALL 3 parties has a common goal: No delays to production - the sooner LMSA produce, the sooner money hits the bank.

    This could also be the result if this whole thing just blows up:
    1. Malian government - retains Goulamina resource, but the mine is half built and lost all trusts from international investors, as no one will want to do a deal with them to continue development. Left with pile of rocks on their land, and potential existing miners/investors start to pull out of the country. Might face some lawsuits.
    2. Ganfeng - left with nothing but a few hundred million dollar loss and might not even end up getting the end product from Goulamina. Would probably want to sue the Malian government.
    3. Leo Lithium - left with nothing period. Would probably want to sue the Malian government as well.

    It is quite clear that of all 3 parties, LLL probably have to bend over a little bit more, but that is probably the African risk/price that we'd have to pay, but it doesn't mean we can't all reach a win-win-win resolution.

    As someone has already mentioned, better to have 30% of a top 5 lithium resource in the world than 50% of nothing. I believe the negotiation will be a long one, that will include DSO, import duty, mining codes, ownerships etc.

    With those things above, who and how it will affect the 3 parties:
    • DSO - Pro: Mali, GF, LLL - benefits the entire project in terms of testing. Con: Mali don't get any money out of it. Resolution: Could we just do it to break even and any profits are donated to Mali? Or even do it at a small cost, just to make sure the logistics are all good.
    • Import duty - Pro: Mali - getting a giant cash injection of $50-60m but risk losing the trust of investors. Con: GF, LLL - extra capex but can be covered by existing fund. Resolution: If this gets us on side with the government, maybe just take a loss on this. Give them a sweetener.
    • Mining codes (ownership) - Pro: Mali - getting up to 35% instead of 20% will make a huge difference to their bottom line, but risk losing trust by doing so and potentially illegally too. Con: GF, LLL - losing out on additional profits. Resolution: Is there a happy medium? Could we just agree to paying all import duty? Or could we just 'gift' them their additional 10% of original mining code? So they have 20% straight up?

    There has to be ways to squeeze a triple win situation out of this, but it will probably take a lot of back and forth and a lot of educating.

    So going back to your question of, when do we stop bending over. IMO, I think as long as this is still profitable for us (not matter how small), even though the terms are less than before, we'd still be somewhat bending over. I think it is when we feel that we could/might walk out with absolutely nothing, then that's when we stop and then take whatever action is necessary.

    That is just the African risk and the SP clearly shows it. Though, I do believe once all 3 parties are in sync, and Goulamina is printing money, African risk will reduce over time.
 
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