LLL 0.00% 50.5¢ leo lithium limited

Ann: Suspension from Quotation, page-142

  1. 3,990 Posts.
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    I meant to add to my last post


    When I first invested in Leo (as opposed to FFX) it was projected to own 40% of the project, it had a Resource of 108.5mt @ 1.45%, stage 2 was slated at 300ktpa and was going to commence 18 months after stage 1 completion. I expected the capex to increase and the schedule to blow out.



    Now we will own 29.25%, our Resource is double, stage 2 is brought forward 18 months and expanded to 500kt and we are talking about stage 3. Capex did increase but not by as much as I envisioned and we are on schedule and 15 months closer to completion.


    The African discount is there because of uncertainty, for events like we’ve just experienced.

    But do you apply it twice - wipe 50% off our market cap, then discount it further because of what the Government may do. I think they’ve done their worst, hopefully if anything we’ll get a few concessions from here.


    There is a lot of good news in the 2nd paragraph above, we need to look at our investment through a new lens.

    Assuming the worst case, what is a fully funded Company worth that owns 29.25% of Goulamina, a project well into it’s construction, with stage 2 doubling production straight after & stage 3 after that. Assuming the worst case the Company will have tax/royalty/dividend concessions worth a considerable amount of money, the JV will only have $40m of debt to repay, a Reserve upgrade in the next 2 weeks.


    I know rose coloured glasses, I expected a few African hurdles along the way, I didn’t expect a new mining code. But time to reassess. Is it still a good investment? do I expect it to get into production? what value do you put on 29.25% of the project?


    My understanding is for the extra 20% they do, the 5% local I'm not sure
 
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