Actually my last post didn't answer your question. While it's not my expectation from here, if they don't start production this year, this is one possible way on how it might play out.
This cr and accompanying news while initially volatile and IMO, unpredictable for the very near term sp, allows construction to begin. That will drive the sp higher. IDC funding news drives the sp futher. Green ammonia news and further construction news follows. The sp seems likely to follow a similar path to last year's rally from 7c to 17.5c and probably higher IMO considering the more important newsflow. By the time there might be any real indication that they might miss production this year, the sp could easily be at least in the high teens. On news of your hypothetical scenario that production will be delayed, the sp reaction might depend on the length of the delay. With the plant still likely to be completed, the sp correction seems unlikely to correct as heavily as it did late last year and ito early this year.
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