Ann: Suspension from Quotation, page-82

“Would you mind sharing your thoughts (and anyone, really) on what will happen to the sp if we don't hit production this year?”

Firstly I think it's very healthy you question the company's past record and hurdles going forward based on past performances. Too many small cap stocks get pumped by forums like Hotcopper. Some end in tears, some go on to achieve great returns.

Will they get the plant operational by the growing season - IMO 50/50. If you go by their past record probably unlikely. I give it 50/50 because it is a very simple construction & the long lead items are already built & on site. Funding is the issue.

Angola has many growing seasons, the main one for sugar cane and others starts in October, officially we don’t even have a contract with Biocom, smaller crops Carrinho would supply have various planting dates. IMO the big one is going to be the offtake for ~ 200kt with the S African customer, I assume that would not be seasonal dependant as it would take full annual plant stage 2 capacity to supply. No hope of just supplying that quantity in the growing season.

If you look at the revised production schedule, they are very close to nameplate stage 1 capacity, I don’t know what they are factoring into that schedule, but I do know it’s not based on S Africa (I asked them). So even at their revised stage 1 production schedule, they need to be producing near capacity on a yearly basis to fulfill that. I very much doubt they’d expect to produce close to their full yearly quota, stock pile it & sell just prior to the main growing season.

Re approaching NPV, as I’ve posted before I think it’s irrelevant (Chuk disagrees & I respect his opinion). I fully expect the S African offtake (or another) to come through and build straight to stage 2 for the small extra capex. That combined with maybe a Biocom offtake will enable the company to announce a planned initial production schedule. IMO the market will look at the profitability of that to value the company.