Ann: Suspension from Quotation, page-90

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Merchant2000

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28/02/24

14:07

Post #: 72645997
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Originally posted by chuk: ↑

"Re approaching NPV, as I’ve posted before I think it’s irrelevant (Chuk disagrees & I respect his opinion)."

"IMO the market will look at the profitability of that to value the company."

No, I don't disagree. I agree with you that a PE based valuation will take over soon.
Once the market has a better idea of likely profits, it will use that to help value the company using a forward PE. Until then, I use the NPV as an initial guide on a likely base case valuation.
NPV remains important too though. If first year's profit is expected to reflect only a few weeks in that financial year and is expected to be say just $1 million and $70 million the following year, the market is not going to value the company based on just $1 million first year's profit. Likewise, if a company is for some reason expected to have a $200 million profit in its first year, settling to $100 million per year after that, I wouldn't expect it to be valued based on the $200 million. In both cases the market will be more forward looking anf factor in future earnings as well which is what a NPV does although an NPV does discount the valuation much more than a PE does
Also, at some point the market will give the GA a valuation. After all, the phosphate project has been given an average valuation of around $100mill over the last 3 years, well before being fully financed and it had a valuation from before completing its initial scoping study.
The green ammonia looks more compelling than the phosphate project when compared to other similar projects around the world. I think the trigger to the market giving it a decent starting valuation will be the start of the PFS and/or the announcement of a partner of some sort.
Then the company will be valued on expected phosphate earnings probably looking at least to the following year's profit as well, plus adding some valuation for the GA and that valuation should gradually increase over time as that project advances.

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@chuk

Would you sell 50% of your CR shares at cost price to some of your followers who paid 15-17c on your recommendations in 2023

Hopefully when they trade well above CR price some here can reduce their losses

Thanks

Last edited by Merchant2000: 28/02/24

MNB Price at posting: 9.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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