Due to the infancy of this field in Australia, it was almost impossible to do the DD to fact-check whether management were talking straight facts or highly embellishing the future movement. I concluded it was highly embellished and far too optimistic. I was ready to throw my DD out when the Palisade deal was signed for funding, yet nothing moved since then.
The current problem with the CER debt also doesn't make 100% sense from what management are saying their deal will be with Roadnight. Therefore, I don't think a deal will occur with Roadnight or it'll be on almost criminal terms. From what I gathered, once a contract is overdue and the CER accrue interest on it means you cannot sell that contract to another party, you have to claim it with production or take the complete loss and get rid of it. This would mean the "fine" is unable to be reclaimed and it prevents parties from monetarily benefitting by hoarding credits and then selling them on better terms in future, while wearing a small interest rate determined by the ATO. This was my understanding. It doesn't add up that the company expects ~$1.8mln of added future cashflow to the company in this scenario, unless these are the costs of future interest charges and it is why it's been approximated as those rates are set by the ATO. It is terribly explained by management in each report.
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