I think the valuation seems fair to cheap given the outlook and the long list of issues facing the business. Just like it seemed fair to cheap when it traded at $3+ and the outlook was very rosy and ROE implying $70m+ NPAT was talked about. The market in general is most focused on the next 12 to 18 months. Who knows, but a 1% cut to the cash rate is worth 5m+ NPAT, plus book repricing going on, plus NZ is at a low point. 70 or 80 might be off the cards in the medium term unless rates get crunched back to zero, which would also mean a bad recession, but 50m seems doable.
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