Yes it's nice to have Curzon in place for 2.1Mlbs. At the same time, I think it's interesting to have a look at Global Atomic as a benchmark / case study. Here's a snippet from their October 3 2023 announcement of their third uptake agreement:
Global Atomic was targeting 50-60% in offtake agreements. Going back to Aura, and using a 50% benchmark on 91.3Mlbs, Curzon is < 5% so still a fair way to go.
Interesting also to look at the price action around Global Atomic's announcement. Over the 3 or so months from the announcement, Global Atomic share price went from 2.19 to peak at 3.85 on 18 January 2024 (75% increase), while the ETF only went up around 19% during that time. Interesting as well that this price action occurred against the backdrop of the coup in Niger (where Global Atomic's uranium resource is located), which was recognised by the US on 10 October 2023!
So as to what would happen to Aura's price following the announcement of a second offtake agreement...that's anyone's guess but my ideal scenario for the next three quarters is:
1. End of Q3 2024 - announcement of second offtake agreement
2. End of Q4 2024 - project development financing confirmation
3. End of January 2025 - Swedish announcement overturning mining ban
4. End of Q1 2025 - final investment decision to proceed
All going well, Aura can potentially build more company value in the next 9 months than it has in the last 9 years (which, in fairness, has largely been a matter of hanging on by the fingertips through a long uranium bear market).
I don't think it's an entirely fanciful scenario either since 1, 2 and 4 more or less line up with what the company has publicly announced. 3 is somewhat of an unknown but piecing together what Aura and District Metals have said, the 15 May decision is being kept under wraps so it can't be picked apart by the opposition, and the plan is to overturn the legislation by end of January 2025.
I suspect even the most bearish in this forum would agree that the share price will by heading well north of mid-teens should 1, 2, 3 and 4 fall into place. If anyone disagrees, I've laid out my reasoning for people to pick apart so as Pat Benatar would say, hit me with your best shot.
Yes it's nice to have Curzon in place for 2.1Mlbs. At the same...
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