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Ann: Sweden initiates inquiry to overturn uranium mining ban, page-147

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Zxc

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25/07/24

17:28

Post #: 74918802
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Originally posted by pmzw75: ↑

Good discussions,
All in all Aura share price should be materially higher as the milestones get ticked off. I made a simple calculations using the yearly production numbers from the Feb FEED study. I use US$35/lb costs, 25% tax rate, 8% discount rate and US$80/lb uranium price. That gets me US$384M NPV (vs 388 from Aura presentation). Assuming an additional AU$15M equity raise at AU$0.18 and 90M options attached to kep the light on combined with50/50 loan/equity raise at 0.28AUD to finance the plant (with no additional options) I end up with close to 1500M shares fully diluted. With US$388M NPV, US$115M cash and US$115M debt I then get a fair value of roughly AU$0.4

When they crank up the production to an average of 3Mlb over 17 years, my NPV goes to US$790M and share price estimate to AU$0.84 (perhaps costs go up too, but I did not change those numbers, still assuming US$35/lb).
When both the equity raise and plant financing is done at AU$0.12 I get a fair price estimate of AU$0.28 @ 2Mlb/yr and AU$0.58 @ 3Mlb/yr

All of this ignoring Haggan, which according to the Aura study has an NPV of US$456 without Uranium and US$1334 with U308.
Assuming 1.5Billion shares oustanding then the low case Haggan will add AU$4.3cts for every 10% of its NPV that the company gets credit for. So, if the market thinks Aura is worth 10% of Haggan's NPV then add 4.3cts to the share price. Similary, add AU$0.125 cts in case the bans gets lifted per 10% value attribution. Aura is now valued at 1/3 of the Tiris NPV. So, in the most optimistic case we add 1/3 of the Haggan high case NPV of US$1334 add boost the share price by AU$$0.41

Best case: Tiris @ 3Mlb/yr and 0.18/0.28 eq. raise and financing + 30% of Haggan high case NPV post lifting ban: AU$1.25 / share (10x from here)
Worst case: Tiris @ 2Mlb/yr and 0.12/0.12 eq. raise and financing + 30% of Haggan low case NPV (ban not lifted, U308 ignored): AU$0.42 / share (3x from here)

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Well done, nice post.

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do not advertise external links.au/companies/news/1052639/high-value-uranium-mines-aura-energy-s-path-to-decarbonisation-1052639.html

AEE Price at posting: 13.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Sweden initiates inquiry to overturn uranium mining ban, page-147

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Ann: Sweden initiates inquiry to overturn uranium mining ban, page-147

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Neurotech knocked back by FDA as agency declares target condition not rare enough for special status

Buxton projects new graphite province discovery at WA Narryer play

Solstice Minerals to ramp up drilling campaign at Yarri Gold Project

BCI reaches close of funding facility for salt-first part of Mardie project

White Cliff jumps 24% on 'bonanza grade' copper rock chips at Rae project, Canada

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