If you really think Aura is headed to 50c+, the risk with holding out for single digits is maybe the share price never gets there and you lose out on the substantial upside of increasing your position in the mid-teens and selling at 50c+.
I can break down my math but as I calculate it, you'd have to think the chances of Aura heading to $0.09 are quite a bit higher than 50% for it to make sense to wait.
I'm not in the business of predicting short term share prices but if forced, I'd say that Aura will roughly track the market in the short term (which should be 50% chance of up, 50% chance of down according to random walk theory) and then break away based on stock-specific news.
If the upside were limited to say an exit in the high 20s, low 30s, holding out might be the right approach.
But for anyone predicting an exit at 50c+, by my calculations buying now is the correct strategy.
AEE Price at posting:
14.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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