AEE

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14.5¢ aura energy limited

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27/07/24

23:19

Post #: 74947005
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Originally posted by pmzw75: ↑

Good discussions,
All in all Aura share price should be materially higher as the milestones get ticked off. I made a simple calculations using the yearly production numbers from the Feb FEED study. I use US$35/lb costs, 25% tax rate, 8% discount rate and US$80/lb uranium price. That gets me US$384M NPV (vs 388 from Aura presentation). Assuming an additional AU$15M equity raise at AU$0.18 and 90M options attached to kep the light on combined with50/50 loan/equity raise at 0.28AUD to finance the plant (with no additional options) I end up with close to 1500M shares fully diluted. With US$388M NPV, US$115M cash and US$115M debt I then get a fair value of roughly AU$0.4

When they crank up the production to an average of 3Mlb over 17 years, my NPV goes to US$790M and share price estimate to AU$0.84 (perhaps costs go up too, but I did not change those numbers, still assuming US$35/lb).
When both the equity raise and plant financing is done at AU$0.12 I get a fair price estimate of AU$0.28 @ 2Mlb/yr and AU$0.58 @ 3Mlb/yr

All of this ignoring Haggan, which according to the Aura study has an NPV of US$456 without Uranium and US$1334 with U308.
Assuming 1.5Billion shares oustanding then the low case Haggan will add AU$4.3cts for every 10% of its NPV that the company gets credit for. So, if the market thinks Aura is worth 10% of Haggan's NPV then add 4.3cts to the share price. Similary, add AU$0.125 cts in case the bans gets lifted per 10% value attribution. Aura is now valued at 1/3 of the Tiris NPV. So, in the most optimistic case we add 1/3 of the Haggan high case NPV of US$1334 add boost the share price by AU$$0.41

Best case: Tiris @ 3Mlb/yr and 0.18/0.28 eq. raise and financing + 30% of Haggan high case NPV post lifting ban: AU$1.25 / share (10x from here)
Worst case: Tiris @ 2Mlb/yr and 0.12/0.12 eq. raise and financing + 30% of Haggan low case NPV (ban not lifted, U308 ignored): AU$0.42 / share (3x from here)

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AEE Price at posting: 14.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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