Ann: Sweden initiates inquiry to overturn uranium mining ban, page-315

Weekly data and thoughts.
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.Uranium Sector Overview -
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Last week I wrote - DYL needs to cross 15 for a start, next number 16.5. It did cross 15, reached 15.5, but could not reach 16.5. Finished at 14.5, last week 14, so a small gain for the week. Small/mid caps struggling to make big gains, AEE is playing accordingly.
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Last week (and before) I had provided this data for CCJ trades -

Here are the last 3 drops, including current -
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March 2024 drop - from 51.22 to 39.02 - Drop of 24%
August 2024 drop - from 56.24 to 35.43 - Drop of 37%
January 2025 drop - from 62.55 to 48.18 - Drop of 23%
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I wrote - "So usual drop that CCJ does, in one way it has done that by dropping 23% in reaching 48.18. Question is - will that be the low? Odds are good, especially with the return over 50 yesterday". I was not sure about timing of low, but 48.18 looked like very probable last year's March drop numbers.
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So what did Mr CCJ do this week? Confirmed 48.18 as low. Stayed above 50 for the whole week. Reached 58.33 on Friday. Finished at 56 on Friday. Our friend did well.
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So why do I feel 48.18 may be the low for this phase? 23% drop like March last year, fitting the pattern. Then it rose from 48.18 to 58.33, over 20% increase. Any time it gains or loses over 20%, I feel a new phase starts.
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The Spot Futures playing around. Has dropped again this week, to 71.80, so some concern there.
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.So where are we? I feel we have reached another uncertain state. Last week I had written that we may see a small run. And it did happen. Many stocks made around 10% gain - ATOM, DYL, BOE, LOT, NXG, SLX - some big stocks, ETF etc, besides CCJ which I use as barometer
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What is positive -

• CCJ seems to have made 48.18 as the low of last phase
• After reaching 58.33, 20% gain for CCJ, we are now in new phase
• Strong finish for many of the big stocks
• Overall U macro has kept on improving

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What is negative -

• Spot has dropped to 71.80. If it drops below 70, it may sour the sentiment for short term. Many feel long term contracts are being signed at much higher levels and this number is irrelevant. Possible, but most contracts are not disclosed, so for punters this number is indicative.
• Couple of years back many U stocks decided about reopening - NXG, UEC, PDN, PEN, BOE, DYL, LOT, etc. One thing every CEO and analyst were saying. For sustainability and success of production run, Spot price needs to be above 80. And it was above 80 nearly whole of last year. Many have re-opened on that thought or are re-opening. But if the Spot Price starts reflecting in Future Contracts, that may force some to shut the shops temporarily, not immediately, but if it persists for couple of quarters.
• Still no clear data around Demand and Supply. There is talk of Supply Squeeze happening for 7 years now, but no clear data to back, no signs yet that it has reached a level that secondary supply may be limited. Also new supply has come. Only when we get a big squeeze, we will se a massive rise, otherwise drift.

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So what are the numbers? CCJ needs to make a higher low, above 48.18. But probably not fall below 52/53 level or so to keep the bullish rise continuing. For upside make a new high above 62.55, towards high 60s as top of this phase. So I am watching and play as these numbers get played.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:.
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