"Highly likely we head lower as buyers dry up and the seller lowers his offer."
If this is true then you should sell all your shares now and bank the profit by buying back at the lower price.
The problem, as I see it, is that there's no way to determine if this is true. Firstly, iceberg orders are by definition hidden so it's impossible to know whether they even exist except by trying to make inferences around the trading action. Secondly, even if one knew they existed, it's impossible to know whether there are further sell orders coming, or what the seller's intention may or may not be with regards to the price. Thirdly, there are a number of potential shorter term catalysts that may drive the price significantly upward e.g. confirmation of Tiris funding and finalisation of the capital stack, final investment decision, etc. Even if one were right about the iceberg, there's quite a big risk that being on the sidelines between now and Q12025 will result in missing the upside.
To me, the right way to approach this is to have a look at the future cash flows that Aura will produce, discount those to present value and then compare that against the share price. What rings true time and time again in the sharemarket is that the price of the stock will converge to its true value. There may be temporary dislocations, sometimes lasting even years, but in the end the price of the stock will reflects its true value.
So to someone thinking this is less than $0.14 by all means sell but I haven't yet seen a rational calculation that would support that.
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Last
16.5¢ |
Change
-0.005(2.94%) |
Mkt cap ! $136.3M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
17.0¢ | 17.5¢ | 16.0¢ | $463.9K | 2.753M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 106135 | 16.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
17.5¢ | 115000 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 106000 | 0.165 |
4 | 168648 | 0.160 |
5 | 496233 | 0.155 |
7 | 1108666 | 0.150 |
3 | 33791 | 0.145 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.175 | 115000 | 2 |
0.180 | 507750 | 7 |
0.185 | 336717 | 6 |
0.190 | 245036 | 3 |
0.195 | 388481 | 6 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 02/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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