Klogg.
I have a different interpretation to you of the forecast for FY23 from today's update:
- The quoted 8% decline is for TV revenue only and for the first half of FY23 relative to first half of FY22 (which included the Tokyo Olympics). So, I am assuming that WAN is marching to a different revenue tune and should hold its own in FY23.
- Seven H1 FY22 was $732m revenue which included Tokyo Olympics with a further $86m for WAN.
- Seven H2 FY22 was $636m revenue with a further $83m for WAN.
- So FY22 was total revenue of $1,540m, costs of $1,198m, D&A of $33m and EBIT of $309m
I don't see that they are saying that EBIT will crash from $309m to your figure of $135m in FY23 (and trading today also does not seem to suggest that).
I am working on H1 FY23 to be $732m x 0.92 = $673m for Seven. If H2 FY23 Seven revenue is flat, then we are talking about FY23 revenue from Seven of $1,309m plus WAN of $170m = $1,479m as a starting point FY23 revenue for the group. They then highlight that "incremental revenue should offset related new deal costs". FY23 costs are signaled at $1,225m to $1,250m and their earlier announcement on NBCUniversal stated costs of $45m to $50m on a full year basis.
Upshot of the above is I am working on revenue of $1,479 plus, say, $35m additional incremental revenue for NBC = $1,514m. Less costs of, say $1,235m = EBITDA of $279m / EBIT of $244m (using your $35m D&A figure) as a minimum for FY23.
GLTA & DYOR
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