ECOWAS countries still very nervous, last year they said Mali was stable and yet, here we have 2 successful coups in 10 years (most coups are unsuccessful).
- The coup is backed by the popular sentiment that the previous regime were getting fat with international corporations .... but the population is still poor, they want the government to do more, they want international companies to pay more to people, so does the union have the potential to get nasty? Yes in any country... and what about a country in Africa backed by a populist coup leader - hell yeah.
- French investing 850M euros in security to safeguard their interests (is it by accident?)
- RSG suspending entire forecasts of their automated goldmine to 31 Dec because of a 10-day potential strike, even assume where the workers are being paid to sit at home anyway (another accident or opportunistic massaging of the real picture?)
- RSG constantly appears to take outside factors to push the impact of their failed forecasts, they lure investors with the "automated underground mine" banner, but fail to deliver every time compared to peers.
I think the fall to 94c is only the beginning. Like any strike in developing nations, they are pushed by the "union mafias" and political powers, except there in even the most stable parts of the region, is a history of holding to ransom, killing the goose with the golden egg before they realise what they did.
See the stopped production due to "failures" which haven't been yet identified as to whether they were caused by people or not last year, not to mention the true effectiveness cost of operating and servicing such new and untested machinery.
This is Africa, many things can go wrong even when they shouldn't, especially around the time where there is a populist coup. Everyone will push far too hard to get a piece of a pie they think is bigger than what it is. There's also a reason why RSG fell to 60c after peaking at 2$ within 12 months... despite branding the image of a low risk automated gold miner (which is VERY susceptible to mafia-like interventions causing faults and halts in production) RSG knows this too and removed all forecasts. You will see there is little correlation here with the gold price movements and peers since a while.
There's a BIG reason why a few stable gold miners (Anglo/Barrick et al) who have been in Mali for decades are divesting their assets there.
If peers in stable locations and tested/proven mining approached had similar production levels the stock would be at 2-3 $... RSG markets to new retail investors with the automated mining logic, boosts the price up, then they get the cold wind when they realise the story above... they hope larger investors see what they saw... they hope, keep hoping.
Sold after the coup, and glad I did. Get ready for a rollercoaster back down to 0.70s IMO.
Still won’t buy back at 70c if there is no state assurance, until a government is formed, and a new understanding is struck with the new populist powers that no “undue pressures” will be subjected locally to RSG, this is important if you don’t want to gamble...especially if the bigger mining boys want out of their Mali assets, the next gold goose they turn to will be whoever’s sitting there. Welcome to Africa, it’s not for the faint hearted.
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