SYD 0.00% $8.72 sydney airport

We will see. I understand rights issues but the overall impacts...

  1. 86 Posts.
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    We will see. I understand rights issues but the overall impacts depend on why it is being done:

    From ASX/Morningstar:

    "Say you have 1000 shares in Quicksand Constructions Limited, currently trading at $2 a share, and the company has one million shares on issue. You therefore own $2000 worth of Quicksand or 0.1 per cent of the company. The directors identify a growth opportunity and make a 1-for-4 rights issue at the discounted price of $1.60.

    You get the right to buy one new share at $1.60 for every four shares you own. That is a substantial discount to the current share price, so the issue sounds attractive. But is it, and how much are your rights really worth? If you take up the offer, your shareholding will include:

    1000 shares at the current market price ($2.00) $2000
    250 new shares at the rights price ($1.60) $400
    Cost of all your shares $2400

    So what is the average cost of all your shares after the rights issue? Because the shares bought via rights are cheaper than the current market price (and because free lunches are hard to come by), these lower-priced shares theoretically drag down the market price post-rights to $1.92.

    This means you lose 8 cents a share (a total of $80) on the original shares you held, because the price is 8 cents lower. But you get the same amount back by exercising your right to buy 250 shares at $1.60 instead of the expected market price of $1.92. Exercising your rights also means your shareholding as a percentage of issued capital remains the same.

    While this is essential in understanding that rights are often not what they are cracked up to be, in reality the share price may not behave this way at all.

    There could be a free lunch after all

    As mentioned, investors will judge the rights issue according to what use the company is putting the money and whether it is expected to increase earnings over time.

    If, in the Quicksand example, the share price did not fall to $1.92 but managed to hold firm at $2 because the project it would finance was so compelling, investors would indeed enjoy a free lunch. They would effectively be getting their hands on new shares for $1.60 compared with a market price of $2, while losing nothing on their existing holdings.

    The other option you may have (but not always) is not to exercise the rights at all but to sell them. The value of your rights, in theory at least, is the difference between the expected market price of the stock after the rights issue and the exercise price of the rights.

    The trade-off, of course, is that your percentage equity holding (or theoretical claim over the earnings) in the company will be diluted to the extent that other investors convert their rights to shares."

    Hard to see the share price remaining at present levels considering covid impacts (definately no "compelling" reason here). I think many will sell. Maybe a bit above the rights price is a reasonable "best" position ??

 
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