That's my biggest concern Hodgie. Either they're being naive - or hopeful - that Merck will pick up the company during or following Phase 3 (or indeed if the TACTI-003 HNSCC trial is an overwhelming success, thereby allowing registration without a Phase 3). Or a partnership is being negotiated now, and Marc and the board know that a deal is imminent.
I'm comforted about the latter. Firstly Marc, Frederic, Lucy and Deanne all have skin in the game with listed shares as well as options. There's going to be a point where they want out too. Secondly, they would well know that they can't fund a Phase 3 trial without another cap raise - with only enough cash to H12024. So partnering is the only feasible option. Thirdly, the oral presentation at SITCI would have no doubt generated further industry interest (even if the Australian market or media don't particularly care). Merck would be well aware of this. Fourthly, VLA was only undergoing phase1b combo trials with both Merck in Keytruda and BMS in Yervoy - so there still really wasn't substantial competitive tension before Merck took VLA out.
Merck will strike when it sees it's in its best interests to - but obviously at the cheapest possible price. Surely that would be now at 31c. And again, with VLA, VLA had been up to 1.20, before being squeezed down to .55, before then being taken out at 1.70.
"Our urgency on business development has not changed. We do see a list of potential places to play," Merck Chief Executive Robert Davis said on a conference call with analysts. "Obviously, we've got to bring them through to fruition, which we're working to do."
Chief Financial Officer Caroline Litchfield said that one difficulty in reaching deals is agreeing on valuation.
"We continue to see sellers' expectations lag what the marketplace looks like,"
IMM Price at posting:
31.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)