My intent was not to be patronizing. I read a research article a...

My intent was not to be patronizing. I read a research article a few years back that followed analysts price targets over I forget how many years, but it was more than five. The analysis was also done at the point of approval, so it didn't take any development risk into account. The analysts were out by an average of 50% on sales. The interesting thing was they were out by 50% on the low side for smaller companies and 50% on the high side for larger companies.

Overall, you are right, though. Most of these things are so NPV positive, the question really isn't about dollars in the door down the track, but whether they actually make it on to the track. There are exceptions to the rule, but good management and good technology often leads to a good outcome. Keep a close eye on trial result shenanigans and the quality and performance of management, always diversify and I think you will do well.