The insider trading thesis is ignorant of the big picture. We...

The insider trading thesis is ignorant of the big picture.

1. We know the market was anticipating the binding agreement and the SP was inflated, very typical "buy the rumor sell the news". At best the price was probably going to remain neutral or pop up a little bit. A more cynical person would have been expecting the price to drop because a binding agreement was clearly already priced in.
2. The day of the drop was a Monday, the week of the expected announcement. People were optimistic for an announcement before the AGM and they didn't get it, end of the week (previous Friday) came and went. Monday is now the best time for the announcement to drop, expectations are high, and we hear nothing. People are skeptical if the Nov 30th deadline will be met.
3. Now consider this, for reasons outside of our control entire market was down this day. Graphite as a whole was down on average 4-6%. RNU in particular was very interesting. On this Monday RNU had an excellent de-risking announcement and their stock went down 10%. Down 10% on good news.
4. Imagine being a TLG trader and seeing RNU do that. You own Talga and you know news is imminent, but the news isn't even guaranteed to be good! If RNU will drop 10% on the best news of 2022, you're probably thinking OK it's time to get out of Talga while ahead. As a result, Talga gets sold down.
5. It wasn't a particularly high volume day, there were no huge dumps. The sentiment was poor and the sellers were more active than the buyers, likely for all of the reasons above.
6. Yes, it would appear that Talga was sold "early" before the news, but it only looks like insider trading if you ignore everything else. If you see the big picture you'll see the logic.
7. Anyone is welcome to express their concerns about the company and change their sentiment to sell if they wish. But you would be a fool to pick this alleged 'insider trading' as your mole-hill to die on, and the people pushing this theory are being treated as such. To play the devils advocate I'm happy to concede there are plenty of bones to pick with Talga, but "insider trading" concerns from last Monday is the least of it.